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SEPTEMBER 1,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

IMPORTANT EDUCATION NEWS – FROM THE COLLEGE FIX:   Students at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy can take refuge in a new safe space.  The room, literally called the “Sanford Safe Space,” will make its debut this year in a former faculty office turned safe space, reports The Duke Chronicle student newspaper.  Duke University spokeswoman Karen Kemp confirmed the Chronicle article is correct, but did not have further comment to The College Fix.  I'm so happy that the Duke students can find comfort and safety.  It must have been nightmarish without this little touch of the womb.

TRUMP HUSTLING IN PENNSYLVANIA – FROM THE HILL:   Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is down to 7 points in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll released Thursday morning.  Clinton has 47 percent support in the Keystone State, the poll found, with Trump at 40 percent.  Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, led by 11 points in the same poll last month, immediately following the Democratic National Convention.  Among registered voters, Clinton's lead dropped 4 points, from 43 percent to 39 percent.  No doubt this reflects the overall trend we've seen recently, with the gap narrowing.  However, there's no guarantee that trend will continue.  Gaps often narrow and, in the end, the person who was always leading often winds up the winner, if only by a narrow margin.  No guarantees here.

SOMETHING'S HAPPENING – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   It’s tough times for the Big Apple’s grocers.  Garden of Eden, a 22-year-old upscale market, filed for bankruptcy protection this week after closing half of its six stores in the last few years.  The filing in Manhattan federal court is the latest blow to the city’s family-owned, independent grocers.  Cash-strapped D’Agostino is getting a financial lifeline from billionaire John Catsimatidis, who owns the Red Apple and Gristedes grocery stores.  Fairway Market, which was family-owned before it went public in 2013, filed for Chapter 11 earlier this year.  Garden of Eden experienced “a historic lack of patronage” this year, which reached a crisis in the slower summer months when it fell behind on payments to its secured creditors and landlord, according to the filing.  What happens in New York is often felt around the country.  I'm hearing the same story more and more – cash-strapped customers, even those living in affluent areas, can't afford to pay their grocery bills, and are buying much less.  A number of restaurants are also closing.  Something's happening out there, and it isn't good.

September 1,  2016     Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 11:22 A.M. ET:   It's easy to be focused only on our election campaign.  But we also survey the real world each day, and what we find isn't all that encouraging.  Obama (remember?) has four and half months left in office to do his mischief, establish his legacy, and damage the country.  He doesn't much like us anyway.  We learn more and more about some of his schemes, and we realize that we will eventually pay the bill, in blood and treasure.  From Reuters: 

The United States and its negotiating partners agreed "in secret" to allow Iran to evade some restrictions in last year's landmark nuclear agreement in order to meet the deadline for it to start getting relief from economic sanctions, according to a report reviewed by Reuters.

The report is to be published on Thursday by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, said the think tank’s president David Albright, a former U.N. weapons inspector and co-author of the report. It is based on information provided by several officials of governments involved in the negotiations, who Albright declined to identify.

Reuters could not independently verify the report's assertions.

"The exemptions or loopholes are happening in secret, and it appears that they favor Iran," Albright said.

Among the exemptions were two that allowed Iran to exceed the deal's limits on how much low-enriched uranium (LEU) it can keep in its nuclear facilities, the report said. LEU can be purified into highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium.

The exemptions, the report said, were approved by the joint commission the deal created to oversee implementation of the accord. The commission is comprised of the United States and its negotiating partners -- called the P5+1 -- and Iran.

One senior "knowledgeable" official was cited by the report as saying that if the joint commission had not acted to create these exemptions, some of Iran’s nuclear facilities would not have been in compliance with the deal by Jan. 16, the deadline for the beginning of the lifting of sanctions.

The U.S. administration has said that the world powers that negotiated the accord -- the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany -- made no secret arrangements.

COMMENT:  What is remarkable is that, no matter how many concessions we offer Iran, that country's behavior toward us never improves.  In fact, it's gotten dramatically worse since the nuclear agreement.  The Iranians capture our sailors, harass our ships in international waters, and test ICBM's, whose only purpose is to carry nuclear warheads.

Obama considers the Iran deal the signature achievement of his time in office.

If his purpose was to enhance Iranian power, and diminish American strength in the region, it is a major achievement.  Congratulations, Mr. President.  Thanks for...something.

September 1, 2016        Permalink

IT DOESN'T RAIN, IT POURS...ON HILLARY – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  The big deal with Hillary is that she appeals to women.  It appears that many women didn't get their instructions.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Hillary Clinton's favorability among women has suddenly reversed itself.

Last month, women had a largely favorable view of the Democratic presidential candidate, with 54 percent viewing her positively and 43 percent viewing her negatively. But those numbers have flipped in the last few weeks, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Women now dislike Clinton, with 52 percent holding a negative view and 45 percent holding a positive view. This is the first time in a year that more women have disliked Clinton than liked her.

Women were probably never as pro-Clinton as Democrats and liberal writers had hoped. They certainly were never as pro-Clinton as most of the African-American community was pro-Obama. Earlier this year, polls found Clinton's lead among women collapsing, as young women in particular favored her then-rival Bernie Sanders.

As Clinton has fallen in popularity among women, her rival, GOP nominee Donald Trump, has gained. Trump has gained 7 points in favorability among women, from 26 percent in early August to a better-but-still-not-great 33 percent now.

COMMENT:  Again, we emphasize that polls are snapshots in time.  All of this can change very quickly.  Trump has had a few good weeks, and Hillary has had bad ones.  Her scandals continue to make news, but she doesn't.  Her campaign schedule has been light to nonexistent. 

Wait 'til next week.

September 1, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER BLOW TO CLINTON – AT 9:29 A.M. ET:  This is clearly a trend, but trends don't necessarily last.  From Rasmussen: 

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.

The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton's support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump's support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.

Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.

COMMENT:  I haven't seen a single poll showing an increase in Clinton's support.  Of course, we should point out that this is the last week of "summer," on the political calendar, and the main campaign starts Tuesday.  I've watched Clinton speak recently, and she comes off as weak, even uninterested.  Trump, however, whether one likes him or not, is energetic and more engaged than ever. 

Everything can change in an instant, and the election is a bit more than two months away.  That's five lifetimes in politics.

September 1,  2016     Permalink 

AUGUST 31,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:55 P.M. ET: 

TRUMP TRIUMPHS – Donald Trump's surprising trip to meet the president of Mexico has gotten generally good reviews, except, of course, from the Democrats.  The visit went well, Trump was very scripted and presidential, and looked like a man of action.  Polls are tightening, and I believe today's visit will make them tighten more.  Meanwhile, Hillary made a speech to a veterans' group and sounded awkward, distant, and unlikable.  Her problem is that, whenever she opens her mouth, people realize why they don't much care for her.

FOX POLL CONFIRMS TREND – FROM THE HILL:    Hillary Clinton holds a 2-point lead over Donald Trump as the presidential race tightens, a new national poll finds.  A Fox News poll released Wednesday found that the Democratic nominee leads her GOP counterpart 41 to 39 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson garners 9 percent, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein takes 4 percent.  Johnson and Stein siphon away more of Clinton’s support than Trump’s in a four-way contest. When it’s a two-way race, Clinton’s lead expands to 6 points, 48 to 42 percent.  Clinton’s lead has shrunk compared to the same poll from earlier this month that had her up by 10 points. That survey came after the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia late last month and Trump’s feud with the Muslim parents of a slain U.S. soldier.  The poll confirms the general trend – support for Trump is up, Hillary down.

YEAH, HE SAID IT – FROM TOWNHALL.COM:   Speaking from Bangladesh Tuesday morning, Secretary of State John Kerry suggested members of the media stop covering (Islamic) terrorism so people won't "know what's going on." Kerry attempted to preempt his statement by implying media coverage creates copy cats and promotes more terrorism.  "If you decide one day you’re going to be a terrorist and you’re willing to kill yourself, you can go out and kill some people. You can make some noise...perhaps the media would do us all a service if they didn’t cover it quite as much. People wouldn’t know what’s going on," Kerry said.  While the copy cat, attention seeker argument may be true in a handful of cases, the media ignoring terrorism as the Obama administration has arguably chosen to do for nearly a decade, isn't going to make terrorism go away.  Hard to believe he said it, but he'll only be secretary of state until January 20th.  Then Huma Abedin can take the job.

August 31, 2016       Permalink

WEIRD, MAN – AT 10:48 A.M. ET:  Donald Trump, who isn't even president yet, is going south today to meet with the president of Mexico, a man who compared Trump to Hitler and Mussolini.  You gotta give Trump credit – he knows how to create a headline.  From LifeZette: 

GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump will travel to Mexico on Wednesday to meet with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, LifeZette has confirmed.

Sources including Mexican officials involved in the planning of the visit, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, stated the meeting would cover a broad variety of topics ranging from trade to security to immigration and the contentious issue of border enforcement.

A serious, substantive, and respectful meeting with Peña Nieto also offers Trump the chance reassure skeptical undecided voters of his presidential temperament.

It's a masterstroke.  Trump is starting to look like an almost-president.

It is expected that Trump adviser and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions, along with high-ranking Mexican officials, will attend the meeting.

The meeting will occur despite concerns from both Mexican security services and the U.S. Secret Service.

Officials expect the two leaders to make some statement following the meeting, but do not expect a full press conference.

The trip is particularly historic for Trump in that no previous non-incumbent presidential nominee of a major party has ever traveled to Mexico as part of his campaign.

COMMENT:  I'm sure the Mexican authorities have been advised about the trends in the polls.  Trump will be treated with respect if they think he has a chance of winning.

There is no word on whether Hillary will rush down as well, or just send Anthony Weiner.

August 31, 2016       Permalink

IF BLACK LIVES REALLY MATTER... – AT 9:57 A.M. ET:  A new survey shows growing discontent with President Obama among American blacks.  This could affect turnout on election day.  From the Washington Examiner: 

The well-being of black Americans, which began to surge at the end of the Bush administration and reached a high in 2010, has plummeted ever since while white Republicans, Asians and Hispanics have thrived, according to a new Gallup index.

The survey said that blacks who describe themselves as thriving has dropped from near 60 percent in 2010 to 53.2 percent, the lowest of the four racial categories tested.

Gallup blamed the drop on other survey results that indicated African Americans don't believe President Obama has done enough for them during his second term, which they helped to deliver.

Said Gallup, "blacks' life evaluations have waned in Obama's second term, averaging below 54 percent each year since 2013 and now registering below that of whites and Hispanics. These results dovetail with blacks' collective sentiment that Obama has not done enough to improve black Americans' standard of living."

COMMENT:  So, it would appear that Donald Trump does have, theoretically, an opening.   Apparently his campaign is aware of it, and Trump is vigorously pursuing the black vote, something Republican candidates rarely do.  If he can dent the overwhelming majorities Democrats rack up among blacks, it could conceivably swing the election in his favor.

That's a big "if."  The black establishment is pulling out all stops to portray Trump as the racist enemy.  It's up to Trump to crush that narrative.  He must find a way, as Reagan did, to speak above the establishment and the media, directly to black voters.  He'll be addressing a major black church congregation in Detroit this week. 

August 31, 2016       Permalink

HILLARY SINKING – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  It's fast becoming the new narrative, that Hillary Clinton's troubles are increasing at exactly the wrong time.  The scandals surrounding her are having their impact.  Remember that a switch in the polls of five or six points can reverse a presidential election.  From The Hill: 

Hillary Clinton’s image is at its lowest point with Americans in her 25 years of public service, according to a new poll.

Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults view the Democratic presidential nominee unfavorably in The Washington Post/ABC News survey released Wednesday.

Forty-one percent see her favorably instead.

July’s edition of the same poll had Clinton earning a 42 percent favorability rating.

Clinton’s previous benchmark for unfavorability, meanwhile, was a 55 percent ranking in June’s version of survey.

Wednesday’s results found Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, remains even more unpopular.

Sixty-three percent view Trump unfavorably, while 35 percent consider the real estate tycoon favorably instead.

The Washington Post/ABC News conducted its latest sampling of 1,020 adults via cell and landline telephone interviews from Aug. 24-28. It has a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Both Clinton and Trump have received low favorability ratings from voters throughout the 2016 general presidential election.

COMMENT:  Clinton is also slipping in the matchup polls against Donald Trump.  As we reported last night, the latest Reuters survey has the race tied.

This is a case where we wait for the other shoe to drop.  There are more Clinton e-mails to be published.  And her health seems to be growing as an issue.  From The Hill:   "President Obama’s former physician said that he believes Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton should have a neurological examination due to her history of brain injury.  During an interview on CNN, Dr. David Scheiner argued that Clinton’s note from her doctor isn’t enough. The letter details that Clinton had follow-up testing in 2013 that showed a full recovery from a concussion and that she tested negative for clotting disorders."

Stand by.  The formal campaigns start officially on Tuesday.  The first debate is September 26th.

August 31,  2016     Permalink